Assessment of launch vehicle debris risk during ascent aborts

Abstract

In the event of a space launch vehicle explosion during ascent, the debris field generated by the explosion poses a risk to the crew. To evaluate this risk, a model of the debris environment was created and used to determine the probability of a debris strike on the crew module. The model uses experimental data to determine the initial debris field due to a launch vehicle explosion and computes the trajectory of each piece of debris. The trajectory of the crew module after the abort is also computed. The relative position of the debris field and the crew module is determined as a function of time after abort and explosion. A debris flux about the crew module is computed based on this information. The debris flux is used to compute the probability of a debris strike on the crew module using the Poisson distribution. The effect of system and model parameters - such as warning time, the number of debris pieces and abort system thrust- on the debris strike probability is assessed.