Assessment of launch vehicle debris risk during ascent aborts

K. Gee, D. Mathias
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

In the event of a space launch vehicle explosion during ascent, the debris field generated by the explosion poses a risk to the crew. To evaluate this risk, a model of the debris environment was created and used to determine the probability of a debris strike on the crew module. The model uses experimental data to determine the initial debris field due to a launch vehicle explosion and computes the trajectory of each piece of debris. The trajectory of the crew module after the abort is also computed. The relative position of the debris field and the crew module is determined as a function of time after abort and explosion. A debris flux about the crew module is computed based on this information. The debris flux is used to compute the probability of a debris strike on the crew module using the Poisson distribution. The effect of system and model parameters - such as warning time, the number of debris pieces and abort system thrust- on the debris strike probability is assessed.
上升中止过程中运载火箭碎片风险评估
如果航天运载火箭在上升过程中发生爆炸,爆炸产生的碎片区会对乘员构成威胁。为了评估这种风险,创建了一个碎片环境模型,并用于确定碎片撞击乘员舱的概率。该模型利用实验数据确定运载火箭爆炸产生的初始碎片场,并计算每块碎片的轨迹。中止后乘员舱的轨迹也被计算出来。碎片场和乘员舱的相对位置作为中止和爆炸后时间的函数确定。乘员舱周围的碎片通量是根据这些信息计算出来的。碎片通量用于利用泊松分布计算碎片撞击乘员舱的概率。评估了预警时间、碎片数量和中止系统推力等系统参数和模型参数对碎片撞击概率的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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