Prediction of Container Throughput in Guangdong Province Based on Different Model

Abstract

The in-depth implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” has improved the development of the port economy and perfected the the functions of ports in Guangdong. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the port container throughput is essential for port planning and resource coordination. Taking Guangdong port as an example, the article uses ARIMA, GM (1, 1), ES, ES-GM (1, 1) and ES-ARIMA models to simulate and predict port container throughput. The results show that the optimal model for port throughput prediction is ES-GM (1, 1). In the next five months, the average increase in container port throughput was 2.14 wTEU. Finally, based on the forecast results, suggestions are made for the future development of the port.