Approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression and priorities for financial security of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine

K. Klymenko, Maksym Savostianenko
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Introduction. The authors have examined existing approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression, certain aspects of the loss of Ukraine's economic potential, and plans for the post-war recovery and reconstruction, both national and with the participation of international partners. Problem Statement. Significant damage and destruction of infrastructure facilities are among serious consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict including significant reductions or negative values of the economic development pace , which leads to the aggravation of social problems and increased financial risks and threats. . The question of the need for legislative introduction of reliable diversified sources of financial support for the post-war recovery in Ukraine, taking into account all consequences of the military conflict in modern realities, is on the agenda. Purpose. To study approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression and the priorities of financial support for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, in particular, the determination of key areas, tasks, expected results of attracting international financial aid and prospects for further cooperation in accordance with state program documents. Methods. General scientific and special methods are used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization and abstract-logical. Results. The analysis of one of the largest sources of assessment of the physical damage caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is implemented on the basis of the reports of the “Russia will pay” project of the KSE Institute with the support of international partners, was carried out. It was found that these estimates are focused on the direct losses of the physical infrastructure of Ukraine as a result of the war and the assessment of the financial value of these losses, without estimating total losses for the economy of Ukraine. The first independent and objective report on Ukraine's losses from the war and the need for reconstruction as of June 1, 2022, prepared by the Government of Ukraine together with the World Bank, the European Commission (RDNA), was analyzed. The key legislative initiatives and the newly formed regulatory and legal principles for the organization of damage audits, compensation for losses due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and financing of recovery and post-war reconstruction were studied, as well as the main initiatives in the context of strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure. New and existing sources of financing for post-war reconstruction were analyzed, including key programs of the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, started before the full-scale invasion of Russia, but quickly adapted to the current situation in order to continue funding as soon as possible. Conclusions. The ability of Ukraine to function effectively within the framework of international financial cooperation and to fulfill the relevant obligations, as well as to ensure the rapid post-war recovery of economic, infrastructural, and humanitarian potential, can only be guaranteed through cooperation with international partners. Strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure should become one of the components of the basis that will ensure the development of transparent public administration, which will contribute to overcoming the challenges and threats facing Ukraine, long-term economic growth, economic security in general, and also enable integration into the European economic space.
评估俄罗斯军事侵略后果的方法和乌克兰战后重建财政安全的优先事项
介绍。作者审查了评估俄罗斯军事侵略后果的现有方法,乌克兰经济潜力丧失的某些方面,以及国家和国际伙伴参与的战后恢复和重建计划。问题陈述。俄乌军事冲突的严重后果包括对基础设施的严重破坏和破坏,经济发展速度大幅下降或负值,导致社会问题加剧,金融风险和威胁增加。在考虑到军事冲突在现代现实中的所有后果的情况下,需要通过立法为乌克兰的战后恢复提供可靠的、多样化的财政支助来源的问题已列入议程。目的。研究评估俄罗斯军事侵略后果的方法和为乌克兰战后重建提供财政支持的优先次序,特别是确定关键领域、任务、吸引国际财政援助的预期结果和根据国家计划文件进一步合作的前景。方法。一般的科学方法和特殊的方法:分析、综合、分组、描述、比较、理论概括和抽象逻辑。结果。对评估俄罗斯侵略乌克兰所造成的物质损害的最大来源之一进行了分析,该分析是根据KSE研究所在国际伙伴支持下的“俄罗斯将支付”项目的报告进行的。人们发现,这些估计数集中在战争对乌克兰有形基础设施造成的直接损失和对这些损失的财政价值的评估上,而没有估计乌克兰经济的全部损失。对乌克兰政府与世界银行、欧盟委员会(RDNA)共同编写的第一份关于乌克兰战争损失和截至2022年6月1日重建需求的独立客观报告进行了分析。研究了组织损害审计、赔偿全面入侵乌克兰造成的损失以及为恢复和战后重建筹措资金等方面的主要立法倡议和新形成的管制和法律原则,以及加强保护关键基础设施方面的主要倡议。分析了战后重建的新的和现有的资金来源,包括世界银行和欧洲投资银行的关键项目,这些项目在全面入侵俄罗斯之前就开始了,但为了尽快继续提供资金,它们很快适应了当前的形势。结论。只有通过与国际伙伴的合作,才能保证乌克兰在国际金融合作框架内有效运作和履行有关义务的能力,并确保战后经济、基础设施和人道主义潜力的迅速恢复。加强对关键基础设施的保护应成为确保发展透明公共行政的基础的组成部分之一,这将有助于克服乌克兰面临的挑战和威胁、长期经济增长、总体经济安全,并使其能够融入欧洲经济空间。
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