Transient behavior of a stochastic process for screening progressive diseases.

Abstract

This paper extends a mathematical model developed by the authors for describing the stochastic process underlying the etiology of non-contagious progressive diseases. For a population with no prior history of scheduled screening, the number of undetected and detected diseased individuals in the population under an established screening policy is used to calculate the expected total screening cost at any given time during the transient period of the associated stochastic process. A graphical representation of our model shows the status of different subgroups of a particular age group at any time T, and provides a clear summary of the expected number of individuals whose disease remains undetected.