Forecast accuracy measures for micro-grid operation

Abstract

This paper focuses on appropriately measuring the accuracy of forecasts of load behavior and renewable generation in micro-grid operation. Common accuracy measures like the root mean square of the error are often difficult to interpret for system design, as they describe the mean accuracy of the forecast. Micro-grid systems, however, have to be designed to handle also worst case situations. This paper therefore suggests two error measures that are based on the maximum function and that better allow understanding worst case requirements with respect to balancing power and balancing energy supply.