Financial cycle. How does it look like in Romania?

Luminița Tătărici
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Abstract

Abstract The paper aims to identify the main characteristics of the financial cycle for Romania using both the classical and growth cycle approaches. The turning point methodology represents the classical approach, while a band-pass filter is applied to capture the growth cycle. First, the paper assesses the significance of the medium-term cyclical component and finds that its importance increased since 2000s. The second purpose is to identify the relevant variables for the construction of a composite measure of the financial cycle. The results reveal that total credit and real estate prices are the best candidates. Regarding cycles’ characteristics, the classical approach shows that credit cycles tend last around 10 years, while the real estate cycles are longer and exhibit higher corrections during downturns.
金融周期。罗马尼亚的情况如何?
摘要本文旨在利用经典和增长周期方法确定罗马尼亚金融周期的主要特征。拐点方法代表经典方法,而带通滤波器用于捕获生长周期。首先,本文评估了中期周期成分的重要性,发现其重要性自2000年代以来有所增加。第二个目的是确定构建金融周期综合度量的相关变量。结果表明,信贷总量和房地产价格是最佳候选。关于周期的特征,经典的方法表明,信贷周期往往持续10年左右,而房地产周期更长,在经济低迷时期表现出更高的修正。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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