Risk Assessment of Chestnut Drought Disaster in qixian county

Abstract

Based on daily precipitation of Qianxi and six surrounding counties from 1984 to 2015, we estimate the risk of drought in Qianxi county during a series of return periods by probability distribution. So does the chestnut-drought risk by distribution of chestnut and relative risk grade. It is concluded that the risk of drought is higher in the southwest of Qianxi. The drought area and intensity increase with the augment of return period. Percentage of precipitation departure is -43% in Baimiaozi, Xingcheng, Xinzhuangzi and Donglianhua township when the return period is 30a. It is -52% when the return period being 100a. The distributions of chestnuts are largest in Yangjiayu and Shimenzi village, Hanerzhuang township, which are 683 and 670 ha. Influenced by hazard factor and bearing body, the risk grade is highest in most areas of Hanerzhuang, Luanyang, Shangying and Jinchangyu town. Keywords—chestnut; drought; risk; risk grade 摘要—本文基于 1984-2015 年的迁西县及周围 6 个县的日 降水量资料,运用概率分布理论对不同重现期下迁西干旱致 灾因子危险性进行评估,并结合各村板栗暴露数据,利用相 对风险等级法,对板栗干旱进行风险评估。结果表明:迁西 县西南部干旱致灾因子危险性相对较高。随着重现期的增 大,干旱面积和致灾强度也在增加,白庙子乡、兴城镇、新 庄子乡和东莲花院乡 30 年一遇的降水距平百分率达-43%, 100 年一遇达-52%。汉儿庄乡的杨家峪村、石门子村的板栗种 植面积最多,分别为 683 和 670 公顷。风险受到致灾因子与 承灾体共同作用,北部的汉儿庄、滦阳、洒河桥、上营和金