Prediction of Rooftop Photovoltaic Adopters in Residential Customer

Abstract

Based on Electricity Supply Business Plan 2019– 2028, Indonesia targets energy mix of 23% for renewable energy. As Indonesia lies in equator line, the development of photovoltaic (PV) is promising in the future. The utilization of PV can be implemented by installing rooftop PV as it can supply electricity independently. Due to the falling price of PV, the user of rooftop PV is predicted to rise significantly. This paper aims to forecast rooftop PV installment in Indonesia from 2020 to 2030. Firstly, the savings bill if installing rooftop PV is calculated. The higher the capacity of rooftop PV is installed, the higher the savings by customers will be made. Prediction of rooftop PV adoption is then calculated using Bass diffusion model. It uses the historical data from three years ago while considering the effect of PV falling price. As the price goes lower, the adoption of rooftop PV is faster each year. Because of the presence of rooftop PV in the system, the annual production of energy can be reduced as the users can generate their own electricity. Consequently, the total production cost can be lower, leading to generation cost change each year.