Dynamics of 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

Mathematical Theory and Modeling Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.7176/mtm/9-2-05

Mutuguta John, Rotich Titusy, Chepkwony Isaac

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Abstract

Ebola virus disease is transmitted from human to human through physi- cal contact of body uid of infected or dead case. It can also be transmitted indirectly through contact with contaminated surfaces. This risk is however low and can be minimised through cleaning the surfaces by the use of disin- fectants. In this paper we investigate the transmission dynamics of the 2014 Ebola virus disease in west Africa. We use a four compartmental network of Susceptible individuals (S), Exposed individuals (E), Infectious individuals (I) and the Removed individuals (R) without demographic factors. The re- moved compartment is further split into two compartments i.e the recovered individuals (R) and the dead and buried individuals (D). We give the math- ematical model that describe the transmission dynamics of the 2014 Ebola virus disease in West Africa. The results of the model analysis indicate that the threshold value for the transmission dynamics equals the relative removal rate. It is shown that provided that the susceptible ratio is kept below the relative removal rate then the epidemic will not occur. Keywords ; Ebola virus disease, basic reproduction number, epidemic threshold Mathematics subject classi cation: 97M60, 00A71, 46N70 DOI: 10.7176/MTM/9-2-05

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2014年西非埃博拉疫情动态

埃博拉病毒病是通过感染或死亡病例体液的身体接触在人与人之间传播的。它也可以通过接触被污染的表面间接传播。然而，这种风险很低，可以通过使用消毒剂清洁表面来将其降到最低。本文研究了2014年埃博拉病毒病在西非的传播动态。我们使用易感个体(S)，暴露个体(E)，感染个体(I)和移除个体(R)的四区隔网络，不考虑人口统计学因素。移走的隔间进一步分成两个隔间，即恢复的个体(R)和死亡和埋葬的个体(D)。我们给出了描述2014年埃博拉病毒病在西非传播动力学的数学模型。模型分析结果表明，传动动力学的阈值等于相对去除率。结果表明，只要易感比低于相对去除率，就不会发生疫情。关键字;埃博拉病毒病，基本繁殖数，流行阈值数学学科分类:97M60, 00A71, 46N70 DOI: 10.7176/MTM/9-2-05

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Mathematical Theory and Modeling

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