Applying stochastic programming to insurance portfolios stress-testing

Abstract

The introduction of the Solvency II regulatory framework in 2011 and unprecendented property and casualty (P/C) claims experienced in recent years by large insurance firms have motivated the adoption of risk-based capital allocation policies in the insurance sector. In this article, we present the key features of a dynamic stochastic program leading to an optimal asset-liability management and capital allocation strategy by a large P/C insurance company and describe how from such formulation a specific, industry-relevant, stress-testing analysis can be derived. Throughout the article the investment manager of the insurance portfolio is regarded as the relevant decision-maker: he faces exogenous constraints determined by the core insurance division and is subject to the capital allocation policy decided by the management, consistently with the company's risk exposure. A novel approach to stress-testing analysis by the insurance management, based on a recursive solution of a large-scale dynamic stochastic program, is presented.