EXCHANGE RATE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET IN KENYA

C. Njoroge, W. Muturi, O. Oluoch
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Abstract

The purpose of the study was to establish the effect of exchange rate on the performance of the residential property market in Kenya. The study used secondary data that was accumulated using secondary data collection sheet from first quarter of 2005 to fourth quarter of 2018. The study conducted several test statistics and diagnostic tests in order to achieve the most optimal solution. Vector error correction model and auto-regressive distributed lag model were employed to test the hypothesis in the short run and long run respectively. The results found out that exchange rate had a negative effect on performance of residential properties in Kenya in both the short run and positive effect in long run. The study has narrowed down the research gap brought about by the conflicting emprical, theoretical and conceptual literature with regard to the effect of exchange rate on performance of residential property market in Kenya. Key Words: Exchange Rate, Performance, Residential Property
汇率与肯尼亚住宅房地产市场的表现
本研究的目的是确定汇率对肯尼亚住宅房地产市场表现的影响。该研究使用了从2005年第一季度到2018年第四季度通过二级数据收集表积累的二级数据。为了获得最优的解决方案,本研究进行了多次测试统计和诊断测试。采用向量误差修正模型和自回归分布滞后模型分别在短期和长期对假设进行检验。结果发现,汇率对肯尼亚住宅物业的业绩既有短期的负面影响,也有长期的积极影响。该研究缩小了汇率对肯尼亚住宅房地产市场绩效影响的实证、理论和概念文献相互冲突所带来的研究差距。关键词:汇率,业绩,住宅物业
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