Utility-scale lithium-ion storage cost projections for use in capacity expansion models

Abstract

This work presents U.S. utility-scale battery storage cost projections for use in capacity expansion models. We create battery cost projections based on a survey of literature cost projections of battery packs and balance of system costs, with a focus on lithium-ion batteries. Low, mid, and high cost trajectories are created for the overnight capital costs and the operating and maintenance costs. We then demonstrate the impact of these cost projections in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model. We find that under reference scenario conditions, lower battery costs can lead to increased penetration of variable renewable energy, with solar photovoltaics (PV) seeing the largest increase. We also find that additional storage can reduce renewable energy curtailment, although that comes at the expense of additional storage losses.