Reliability prediction method for electronic systems: a comparative reliability assessment method

Abstract

The paper describes a proposed research in defining a new reliability prediction methodology that may be used to evaluate the reliability of computer and electronic systems. The proposed methodology will attempt to minimize the deficiencies of the traditional reliability prediction methods. The deficiencies include: the use of generic failure rates for reliability prediction; and the lack of realism of the reliability prediction in various operational environments. The proposed methodology will employ the use of Analytical Hierarchy Process, a decision tool, to incorporate the qualitative and quantitative data that are most prevalent to the reliability performance of the system under study. This methodology will analyze the reliability of the system under study by comparing its performance characteristics against its predecessor system (or a similar system) with known reliability performance. The resultant analysis will yield a reliability ratio between the two systems and the ratio may be used to describe the system's reliability under various operational environments. The key traits of the proposed methodology are its ability to incorporate all relevant failure modes that are prevalent to reliability performance and the use of realistic data that will provide realism of the predicted reliability.