Comment

Huw Pill
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Abstract

We live in an era of financial globalization. Yet we are not the first to do so. In an oft‐quoted passage from The Economic Consequences of the Peace— indeed, a passage thatDennisQuinn andHans‐JoachimVothquote in their paper “Free Flow, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Risk of StockMarketCorrelations, 1890–2001”—J.M.Keynes (1920, 11) famously describes how, prior to the FirstWorldWar, an investor could already “adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world” through a deep and integrated international capital market. By contrast, scholars of the global economy at midcentury have characterized national markets as “insular” (McKinnon 1981), with countries shielded from the impact of global financial developments by an extensive system of administrative controls on the cross‐border flow of capital, even as international trade was progressively liberalized. What can we learn from such historical variation in capital account openness about the role of financial forces in shaping the behavior of the global economy? How did the integrated international capital market at the turnof the nineteenth and twentieth centuries shapedomestic financial institutions and markets? At midcentury, were controls on cross‐border capital movements an impediment to economic and financial development? Or did they help stabilize economies subject to financial shocks? These are the important questions that Quinn and Voth address. At a time when the efficiency of financial markets and the desirability of capital account openness are again being called into question, it is all themore important that we learn the correct lessons of history.
评论
我们生活在一个金融全球化的时代。然而,我们并不是第一个这样做的国家。在《和平的经济后果》中经常被引用的一段话——事实上,这是dennis quinn和hans - joachimvothth在他们的论文《自由流动,有限的多样化:开放与股票市场相关性的下跌和风险,1890-2001》中引用的一段话。凯恩斯(1920,11)的著名描述是,在第一次世界大战之前,投资者已经可以通过一个深度和一体化的国际资本市场,“在世界任何一个角落的自然资源和新企业中冒险投资他的财富”。相比之下,本世纪中叶的全球经济学者将国家市场描述为“孤立的”(McKinnon, 1981),即使在国际贸易逐步自由化的情况下,各国也通过对跨境资本流动的广泛行政控制系统免受全球金融发展的影响。关于金融力量在塑造全球经济行为中的作用,我们可以从资本账户开放程度的这种历史变化中学到什么?19、20世纪之交的一体化国际资本市场是如何塑造国内金融机构和市场的?在本世纪中叶,对跨境资本流动的控制是经济和金融发展的障碍吗?或者它们帮助稳定了遭受金融冲击的经济体?这些都是奎因和沃斯要解决的重要问题。在金融市场的效率和资本账户开放的可取性再次受到质疑之际,我们吸取历史的正确教训就显得尤为重要。
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