ASSESSMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC RISKS FOR THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SIBERIA IN THE CONTEXT OF A "CORONACRISIS"

Abstract

The article analyzes the demographic risks of ensuring the social and demographic security of Siberia in the context of the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19. The destabilization of the economic situation due to restrictive measures to prevent the further spread of the virus can lead to a significant reduction in the level of economic well-being of households, as well as to a regression of expectations regarding future development. The hypothesis suggests that in these conditions Russia will not get out of the “demographic trap” due to the increasing influence of demographic risks. The study proposes a synthetic definition of demographic risks, which allows assessing the probability of demographic events that affect the demographic situation tension level (danger). Thus, a quantitative assessment of demographic risks for Siberia was made using the Monte Carlo method.