I’ll be Good for Grandma: Institutional and Relational Trust and COVID-19 Restriction Compliance

Abstract

behavior with health campaigns. We examine Guayaquil, Ecuador which was hit particularly hard in the first few months of the pandemic. As lockdowns and social distancing led families to rely on others to secure food or medical assistance, perceptions on trust and the dynamics of social capital during the initial (and worst) months of the pandemic were particularly important. Methods: This paper uses a unique dataset of people receiving a COVID test after suspicion of infection. People in our dataset were active during the height of the pandemic and faced the possibility of needing to rely on others in the case of testing positive. We use regression analysis to study the relation between compliance with mobility restrictions and institutional and relational trust.Results: We find that trusting that close relations (such as family) will be there for you in the case of falling ill is associated with a significant increase in the probability of complying with health campaigns. Additionally, we find that trust in the government has a weak relationship to compliance. However, compliance decreases when examining increased trust in the police but increases with trust in the military.Conclusions: The findings show that enhancing trust may improve compliance with social distancing measures. However, increasing trust in specific groups could have negative consequences. Importantly, compliance could be increased by emphasizing in campaigns that your behavior could influence the health of those who you care about.