An Exploratory Analysis of Delhi Air Quality Using Statistics and Machine Learning Models

Abstract

Air pollution is one of the most significant concerns of the present era, which has severe and alarming effects on human health and the environment, thereby escalating the climate change issue. Hence, in-depth analysis of air pollution data and accurate air quality forecasting is crucial in controlling the growing pollution levels. It also aids in designing appropriate policies to prevent exposure to toxic pollutants and taking necessary precautionary measures. Air quality in Delhi, the capital of India, is inferior compared to other major cities in the world. In this study, daily and hourly concentrations of air pollutants in the Delhi region were collected and analyzed using various methods. A comparative analysis is performed based on months, seasons, and the topography of different stations. The effect of the Covid-19 lockdown on the reduction of pollutant levels is also studied. A correlation analysis is performed on the available data to show the relationships and dependencies among different pollutants, their relationship with weather parameters, and the correlations between the stations. Various machine learning models were used for air quality forecasting, like Linear Regression, Vector Auto Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, and Decision Tree Regression. The performance of these models was compared using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE metrics. This study is focused on the dire state of air pollution in Delhi, the primary reasons behind it, and the efficacy of calculated lockdowns in bringing down pollution levels. It also highlights the potential of Linear Regression and Decision Tree Regression models in predicting the air quality for different time intervals.