On Context, Issues, and Pitfalls of Expert Judgement Process in Risk Assesment of Arctic Offshore Installations and Operations

Abstract

Decisions to be made in the Arctic offshore operations rely extensively on risk assessment outputs, which require a great deal of historical data and information. However, at the current stage of operating in the Arctic offshore – compared to normal-climate regions – such data is scarce due to the limited industrial activities to date. Lack of data on the probability of the occurrence of an unwanted event and, given severe Arctic environmental conditions, the extent of potential severe consequences pose a great deal of challenges and issues for decision-makers. A widely acceptable alternative is the use of expert judgement process. However, this is faced with some issues and pitfalls, which may raise questions regarding the objectivity and level of uncertainty of risk assessment outputs. In this paper, we discuss such issues and pitfalls associated with expert judgement application in risk assessment of Arctic offshore operations.