Oil Price, Budget Deficit, and Monetary Policy: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT:Oil prices have dropped sharply in recent years. If for some countries, the decrease represents tremendous benefits, for others, namely the oil-producing countries, it is a huge loss which is susceptible to cause budget deficit. With respect to such deficit, this study investigates the impact of budget deficit and public debt on monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. We apply the panel instrumental variables (IV)-generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to a pool of 44 countries over the period 1997-2017. The estimator implements IV/GMM estimation of the fixed-effects panel data models with endogenous regressors and is heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent. Regardless of the exporting or importing nature of the country, the results indicate no significant relationships between the fiscal variables and interest rates over the period 1997-2017. However, we find significant positive relationships between public debt and the discount rate and, to a lesser extent, between budget deficit and the discount rate, following the fall in oil prices from 2014. Put simply, monetary authorities have increased the discount rate from 2014. In the net oil-exporting countries, the evidence indicates from 2014 that public debt has significant positive impacts on the interest rates, whereas no significant impacts arise between budget deficit and interest rates. Monetary authorities in those countries seem to respond to the stock of debt rather than to its flow. In the net oil-importing countries, the results show a positive relationship between public debt and the discount rate following the fall in prices. Overall, our results suggest that monetary authorities may have been accommodating monetary policy, mainly through the discount rate, to prevent financial instability that may result from the falling oil prices since 2014. That is, tightening monetary policy may mitigate the inflationary pressure the long-standing decrease in oil prices may have created. Finally, while the falling oil prices should be good news for the oil-importing countries in terms of transportation and production costs, the results shed light on the fact that both oil-importing and exporting countries may be equally affected by the fall since the response of monetary authorities in the two sets of countries is very similar.