Evaluation of Extremist Cohesion in a Darknet Forum Using ERGM and LDA

Abstract

ISIS and similar extremist communities are increasingly using forums in the darknet to connect with each other and spread news and propaganda. In this paper, we attempt to understand their network in an online forum by using descriptive statistics, an exponential random graph model (ERGM) and Topic Modeling. Our analysis shows how the cohesion between active members forms and grows over time and under certain thread topics. We find that the top attendants of the forum have high centrality measures and other attributes of influencers.