HAZOP Quantitative Analysis of the Balise Based on the Improved CUOWGA - Sharpley Value

Abstract

The traditional HAZOP analysis method over-rely on the experts' subjective evaluation and lacks the consideration about risk correlations between risk points. In order to solve these problems, a HAZOP quantization analysis method based on the improved CUOWGA operator and the Sharpley value is proposed. Taking the balise as an example, first, use HAZOP to implement a qualitative analysis of the balise functional layered model. Second, establish a fuzzy evaluation set to quantify the expert evaluation as a confidence interval. Then use the CUOWGA operator to assemble the evaluation and to reduce the subjectivity. Use the Sharpley value to calculate the risk weight after considering the risk correlation. Finally, a safety quantitative assessment of the balise system can be obtained. The assessment shows that the failure probability of the balise system is 28.84%, and the risk level is “Tolerable”. The greatest impact on the system is the ATP transmits information sub-functions failure. The result is consistent with the practical application, which shows that the method is effective.