The Impact of Public Debt on GDP Growth – the Debt Multiplier in the Case of Albania

Abstract

Debates about the level of public debt and their impact on the level of investment and the economy as a whole, are permanent due to the lack of an optimal level offered by economic literature. The recent banking financial crisis brought some EU countries with very high levels of public debt, beyond the maximum limits laid down in EU membership agreements. While in developing countries, public debt is part of the economic debates and has often caused political confrontation. Although with a lower public sensitivity compared to the level of investment, unemployment and the level of prices, public debt plays an important role in the proper performance of these parameters. Increasing or decreasing public spending and especially public investment directly affects the level of investments, employment, prices, production, etc. Public debt, for the most part, is used to finance these public investments. Put together, the level of public debt affects precisely these parameters. Specifically, the level of public debt directly influencing public investment (G) primarily affects the level of public and private investment (I), the level of employment, the level of consumption in an economy (C) and the level of production affecting the level of imports (I) and exports (X). All of the above parameters are part of the Gross Domestic Product or GDP. The public debt level impact analysis at the level of GDP is measured by the Keynesian public debt multipliers. It is precisely the simplified and practical calculation that this multiplier is the focus of this paper. The aim is to calculate the Keynesian public debt multipliers for Albania to analyze the efficiency of public debt utilization in recent years when it has been part of the debate because of its rise to high historical levels. The calculation of this Multiplier for the developed Western countries as well as the emerging countries of the region creates the possibility of a comparative analysis to have a more objective assessment of the efficiency of using public debt in function of the Albanian economys growth in the last 10 years.