Load Supply Capability Evaluation of Distribution Network with Distributed Generation Based on Evidence Theory

Abstract

The access of distributed generation (DG) increases the complexity of power supply capacity evaluation of the distribution network. This paper mainly studies the impact of DG on the load supply capacity (LSC) of the distribution network. The Dempster-Shafer structure (DS) of DG output is established by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). The LSC of the distribution network is calculated by blind number interval sampling, and the evidence focal element form of maximum load growing percentage is generated. Based on the evidence theory and blind number theory, the objective probability information and subjective range information of distribution network power supply capacity are obtained, and the belief and plausibility cumulative probability distribution of maximum load growing percentage are synthesized. The calculation results show that, compared with the traditional probabilistic and nonprobabilistic methods, the proposed method can well describe the objective and subjective uncertainty information of DG output, and comprehensively and effectively analyze the LSC of the distribution network.