Unveiling the powerhouse: Exploring the dynamic relationship between globalization, urbanization, and economic growth in Bangladesh through an innovative ARDL approach

M. Ridwan
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Abstract

Significant changes in the economic landscape of Bangladesh have occurred in recent decades due to variables such as globalization, urbanization, FDI, trade, population dynamics, and their interplay. Effective policies and strategies must be developed with a thorough comprehension of the interconnected dynamics of these factors and their influence on economic expansion. This study investigates the dynamic linkages between globalization, urbanization, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, population, and economic growth in Bangladesh. The study employs sophisticated econometric techniques to analyze the impact of these variables on the nation's economic landscape from 1991 to 2021. The stability of the dataset is evaluated using stationarity tests including ADF, DF-GLS, and P-P unit root tests. The results indicate a varied order of integration estimation for the investigated variables, necessitating additional investigation. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique is utilized to investigate the long-term relationship between the variables. The results demonstrate a positive and statistically significant relationship between globalization, urbanization, trade, FDI, and economic growth. The significance of external factors and urbanization in propelling Bangladesh's economic growth is highlighted by these findings. Surprisingly, during the examined period, population dynamics had no significant impact on economic growth. This emphasizes the need for policymakers to investigate the intricate relationship between population trends and sustainable economic growth. Using the Ramsey Reset test, Jarque-Bera test, Breush Godfrey LM test, and CUSUM & CUSUM square test, the model's dependability is rigorously evaluated. The results demonstrate the model's robustness and validity, bolstering the veracity of the study's findings. On the basis of the research findings, a number of policy recommendations emerge. To promote economic growth, it is recommended that Bangladesh continue to embrace globalization, encourage FDI, and strengthen international trade relations. In addition, policymakers should prioritize urban development to capitalize on the economic benefits of urbanization. To address population dynamics, a balanced approach is required. To maximize the potential of the young workforce, population control measures should be considered alongside investments in education, skills training, and healthcare.
揭示强国:通过创新的ARDL方法探索全球化、城市化和孟加拉国经济增长之间的动态关系
近几十年来,由于全球化、城市化、外国直接投资、贸易、人口动态及其相互作用等变量,孟加拉国的经济格局发生了重大变化。制定有效的政策和战略时,必须全面了解这些因素相互联系的动态及其对经济扩张的影响。本研究探讨了全球化、城市化、外国直接投资(FDI)、贸易、人口和孟加拉国经济增长之间的动态联系。该研究采用复杂的计量经济学技术来分析这些变量对1991年至2021年国家经济格局的影响。使用平稳性检验(包括ADF、DF-GLS和P-P单位根检验)评估数据集的稳定性。结果表明,所调查的变量的积分估计有不同的顺序,需要额外的调查。利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)估计技术来研究变量之间的长期关系。结果表明,全球化、城市化、贸易、FDI与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关关系。这些发现强调了外部因素和城市化在推动孟加拉国经济增长方面的重要性。令人惊讶的是,在调查期间,人口动态对经济增长没有显著影响。这强调决策者需要调查人口趋势与可持续经济增长之间的复杂关系。采用Ramsey Reset检验、Jarque-Bera检验、Breush Godfrey LM检验和CUSUM & CUSUM平方检验,对模型的可靠性进行了严格的评估。结果证明了模型的稳健性和有效性,支持了研究结果的准确性。在研究结果的基础上,出现了一些政策建议。为了促进经济增长,建议孟加拉国继续拥抱全球化,鼓励外国直接投资,加强国际贸易关系。此外,政策制定者应优先考虑城市发展,以利用城市化的经济效益。为了处理人口动态,需要采取平衡的办法。为了最大限度地发挥年轻劳动力的潜力,应考虑采取人口控制措施,同时投资于教育、技能培训和医疗保健。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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