The Impact of the Launch of the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline on the Political Situation in the EU and Ukraine

Inna Shevchuk
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Abstract

The article establishes that the availability of fuel and energy resources becomes a tool of powerful influence in the international arena. When researching the mentioned problems, the significant influence of Russian capital and joint projects on the processes of formation and adoption of foreign policy decisions, changes in the vector of foreign state policy in lobbying interests by Russia is shown. The work proves that the exporting state builds its foreign policy from a position of strength and protects national interests through strategic and tactical manipulations (regulation of energy market prices in the interests of partner countries; creation of conditions for artificial deficit; use of energy dependence of importing countries for lobbying interests in foreign policy or coercion into strategically disadvantageous alliances). The political prerequisites and specifics of the positioning of the USA, EU member states and Ukraine in terms of the construction and commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline are analysed, the possible impact on the state of European security and the consequences for Ukraine are determined. The behaviour strategy and state policy of supporters and opponents within the framework of project implementation are outlined. It is established that support for the launch of the gas pipeline by Germany, as a key player of the EU, especially during military operations on the territory of Ukraine, may lead to a change in positions in the format of the alliance's functioning. In Ukraine, the launch of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is a direct threat to national interests and the integrity of state borders, as the challenges and threats are both economic (blocking gas supplies, limiting the volume of gas transit through the territory of U kraine) and geopolitical in nature (being at the intersection of spheres of influence EU and NATO Ukraine must balance and adjust the vector of foreign policy).
“北溪- 2”天然气管道启动对欧盟和乌克兰政局的影响
该条确定,燃料和能源的可获得性成为在国际舞台上具有强大影响力的工具。在研究上述问题时,俄罗斯资本和联合项目对外交政策决策形成和采纳过程的重大影响,以及俄罗斯游说利益时外交政策向量的变化。这项工作证明,出口国从实力地位建立其外交政策,并通过战略和战术操纵来保护国家利益(为了伙伴国家的利益调节能源市场价格;为人为赤字创造条件;利用进口国对能源的依赖,在外交政策中游说利益,或迫使其结成战略上不利的联盟)。分析了美国、欧盟成员国和乌克兰在北溪2号天然气管道建设和投产方面的政治前提和具体定位,确定了对欧洲安全状况的可能影响以及对乌克兰的后果。概述了项目实施框架内支持者和反对者的行为策略和国家政策。可以确定的是,作为欧盟的关键角色,特别是在乌克兰领土上的军事行动期间,德国对启动天然气管道的支持可能会导致联盟运作形式的立场变化。在乌克兰,北溪-2天然气管道的启动是对国家利益和国家边界完整的直接威胁,因为挑战和威胁既有经济上的(阻断天然气供应,限制通过乌克兰领土的天然气运输量),也有地缘政治上的(处于欧盟和北约势力范围的交叉点,乌克兰必须平衡和调整外交政策的矢量)。
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