Rainfall and temperature scenario for Bangladesh.

The Open Atmospheric Science Journal Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI:10.2174/1874282300903010093

Md. Nazrul Islam

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引用次数: 67

Abstract

A regional climate model named Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) adapted in gener- ating rainfall scenarios for the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) region. At first, PRECIS gen- erated rainfall scenario is calibrated with ground-based observed rainfall during baseline period (1961-1990) in Bangla- desh. The regression coefficients obtained through calibration are utilized for validation of PRECIS simulated rainfall dur- ing 2000-2006. PRECIS overestimated rainfall by 12.37%, 1.58%, 10.81%, 4.79 and 13.18% in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2006 respectively. It underestimated by 0.64% and 10.84% in 2001 and 2004 respectively. On an average, PRECIS overestimated about 4.47% of surface rainfall. Better performance of PRECIS through validation encourages employing it in rainfall forecasting for Bangladesh. In the second step, rainfall and temperature forecast for Bangladesh is experimen- tally obtained for 2010-2020. This work discloses that the PRECIS simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly use- ful in application purposes. However, after performing calibration, acceptable result is obtained in estimating annual rain- fall in Bangladesh with correlation coefficient is 0.90. Change of rainfall is forecasted from -0.99% (in 2013) to 5.3% (2018) for Bangladesh during 2010 - 2020.

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孟加拉国的降雨和温度情景。

一个名为“为影响研究提供区域气候”(PRECIS)的区域气候模式被用于生成南亚区域合作联盟(SAARC)区域的降雨情景。首先，将PRECIS生成的降雨情景与基线期(1961-1990年)孟加拉国地面观测的降雨量进行校准。利用校正后的回归系数对2000-2006年PRECIS模拟降水进行了验证。2000年、2002年、2003年、2005年和2006年，PRECIS分别高估了12.37%、1.58%、10.81%、4.79%和13.18%的降雨量。2001年和2004年分别低估了0.64%和10.84%。平均而言，PRECIS高估了4.47%的地表降雨量。通过验证提高PRECIS的性能，鼓励将其用于孟加拉国的降雨预报。第二步，对孟加拉国2010-2020年的降雨量和温度进行了试验预报。这项工作揭示了PRECIS模拟的降雨和温度没有直接的应用价值。然而，在进行校正后，对孟加拉国年降雨量的估计得到了可接受的结果，相关系数为0.90。2010 - 2020年期间，孟加拉国的降雨量变化预测从-0.99%(2013年)到5.3%(2018年)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Open Atmospheric Science Journal

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