Technology Switch Option and the Market Value of the Firm: A Model and an Empirical Test

Abstract

A correct assessment of the innovation activities is critical to firm performance. To this purpose, some authors have analyzed the relationship between innovation and firm's market value within a framework based on the real options theory. However, in these papers there is not an explicit modeling of the 'real options'. Our model of market value formally includes a technology switch option, which allows the firm to exchange one technology with another when it achieves a major innovation. The model also accounts for the stochastic nature of the innovation. We test the model on a panel of publicly traded British firms operating in different manufacturing industries. The results provide support to the claim that the stock market recognizes and evaluates a technology switch option.