A Method for Predicting Quality of the Crude Oil Distillation

P. Angelov, Xiaowei Zhou
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引用次数: 24

Abstract

Prediction of the properties of the crude oil distillation sidestreams based on statistical methods and laboratory-based analysis has been around for decades. However, there are still many problems with the existing estimators that require a development of new techniques especially for an on-line analysis of the quality of the distillation process. The nature of non-linear characteristics of the refinery process, the variety of properties to measure and control and the narrow window that normally refinery processes operate in are only some of the problems that a prediction technique should deal with in order to be useful for a practical application. There are many successful application cases that refinery units use real plant data to calibrate models. They can be used to predict quality properties of the gas oil, naphtha, kerosene and other products of a crude oil distillation tower. Some of these are distillation end points and cold properties (freeze, cloud). However, it is difficult to identify, control or compensate the dynamic process behavior and the errors from instrumentation for an online model prediction. The objective of this paper is to report an application and a study of a novel technique for real-time modeling, namely extended evolving fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno models (exTS) for prediction and online monitoring of these properties of the refinery distillation process. The results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique and it's potential. The limitations and future directions of research are also outlined
一种原油蒸馏质量预测方法
基于统计方法和实验室分析的原油蒸馏侧流性质预测已经有几十年的历史了。然而,现有的估计器仍然存在许多问题,需要开发新的技术,特别是在蒸馏过程质量的在线分析方面。炼油过程的非线性特性,测量和控制的各种特性以及通常炼油过程运行的窄窗口只是预测技术为了在实际应用中有用而应该处理的一些问题。炼油厂利用实际工厂数据对模型进行校正,有许多成功的应用案例。它们可用于预测原油精馏塔的汽油、石脑油、煤油和其他产品的质量特性。其中一些是蒸馏终点和冷特性(冻结、云)。然而,对于在线模型预测,很难识别、控制或补偿动态过程行为和仪表误差。本文的目的是报告一种新的实时建模技术的应用和研究,即扩展进化模糊Takagi-Sugeno模型(exTS),用于预测和在线监测炼油厂蒸馏过程的这些特性。实验结果表明了该方法的有效性和潜力。并对研究的局限性和未来的研究方向进行了概述
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