Analysis of Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model of Medical Cases for Resource Allocation Recommender System

Abstract

Forecasting the number of incidences of medical cases is important in planning institutional health program strategies to draft intervention and allocate resources. The utilization of advancements in computing and the use of massive health data create possibilities for the generation of tools in a recommender system. This study focused on medical cases forecasting using exponential smoothing model for the development of resource allocation recommender system. Different data pre-processing techniques were used such as imputation and data cleaning in the historical dataset. To determine which set of alpha values can be considered and be used in the development of online resource allocation recommender system for Mabalacat City Health Unit, the mean absolute percent error and mean absolute deviation were used. Exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.9 and 0.3 have high forecasted values than that of Exponential smoothing using 0.1, 0.5 and 0.7 respectively.