The New Context for Our Future

David Espíndola, M. W. Wright
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Abstract

According to Dr. Albert Bartlett, Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado at Boulder, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” In the Exponential Era, having access to data and having the ability to understand the information the data is telling us is on every individual's and organization's critical path for survival. Picturing in our minds how technologies move imperceptibly across what appears to the brain as distant and slowly approaching horizons – only to be surprised as they explode in front of us at speed and volume – is one of the great mental conundrums of the Exponential Era. These explosions in the growth and the unprecedented rates of adoption of new technologies are leaving most of us unprepared and in wonder. Over the first 50 years of Moore's law, the convergences of technologies create the early stages of exponential change in multiple industries and applications.
我们未来的新背景
根据博尔德科罗拉多大学名誉教授阿尔伯特·巴特利特博士的说法,“人类最大的缺点是我们无法理解指数函数。”在指数时代,能够访问数据并有能力理解数据告诉我们的信息是每个人和组织生存的关键途径。在我们的脑海中想象技术是如何在不知不觉中跨越在大脑看来遥远而缓慢接近的地平线的——只有当它们以速度和体积在我们面前爆炸时才会感到惊讶——这是指数时代最大的精神难题之一。这些爆炸式的增长和前所未有的新技术采用速度让我们大多数人措手不及,感到惊讶。在摩尔定律的前50年里,技术的融合在多个行业和应用中创造了指数级变化的早期阶段。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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