21st Century Streamflows in New Mexico

Abstract

The current drought is just the most recent in a long sequence of multi-year drought and pluvial episodes that characterize the hydroclimate of southwestern North America. The current deficits of snowpack, precipitation and streamflow are occurring within a context of increasing temperature that is projected to continue into the foreseeable future. So what is the future of streamflow in New Mexico? Hydrologic models forced by global climate models provide us with a powerful, but still limited, means for making projections of streamflow on seasonal and longer time scales. We will present an overview of the projected future of streamflows in the major snow-fed rivers of New Mexico in the 21st Century, looking backward in time to assess the models and forward in time to examine scenarios of the future.