Transition of Thailand's Power Sector toward Carbon Neutrality 2050

Abstract

The Paris Agreement sets out a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, carbon neutrality becomes a challenge issue worldwide. In 2021, Thailand's Prime Minister pledged at COP26 in Glasgow that Thailand aims at carbon neutrality by 2050, and net zero emissions by 2065. The CO2 emission reduction in the power sector is a significant issue to develop a decarbonized power system. The objective of this study is to analyze energy system in Thailand's power sector toward carbon neutrality 2050 by using Thailand AIM/Enduse model. This study formulates business-as-usual (BAU) and three different carbon neutrality scenarios (CN2050). These CN2050 scenarios are formulated within Thailand context by considering the global CO2 emission trajectories obtained from the integrated assessment models (IAMs) under the different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1, SSP2 and SSP4 scenarios for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 1.9 watts W/m2. Most of the CO2 emissions in the energy sector are contributed by the fossil fuel combustion for electricity generation. The power sector contributed more than 40% of the CO2 emission in the energy sector. The CO2 emissions in the power sector are found increasing from 93 MtCO2 in 2010 to 142 MtCO2 in 2030 and 223 MtCO2 in 2050 in the BAU scenario, with AAGR of 2.2% annually. To achieve the carbon neutrality target, the decarbonization in the power generation are the main pillar to reduce the CO2 emission. The CO2 emissions in the power sector are estimated to be reduced by 53%-89% in the CN2050 in 2030 compared to the BAU scenario. In 2050, the CO2 emissions in the power sector are estimated to be zero in the CN2050 scenario. The improvement of energy efficiency, the penetration of renewable energies, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment including fossil fuel based with both CCS and bioenergy with CCS provide a positive effect on CO2 emissions reduction over the period 2010–2050.