Revisit hemline index theory: Forecasting daily trading of short skirts by stock market in China

Abstract

There are many similarities on fluctuations between clothing styles and finance so that many theorists approach to analyze the relationship of them, the best known of which is the Hemline Index Theory. When the economy is flourishing, hemlines increase, and when the economic situation is deteriorating, the hemlines drop, perhaps even to the floor. In contrast with measuring the illustrations from the fashion magazines of monthly publication traditionally, we collected daily time series of the hemline indicator using the searching volume and trading volume of short skirts on Taobao Index website. Then we evaluated it against the closing price of Shanghai Composite Index by Granger causality analysis and liner regression model during the period of March 1, 2013 to November 30, 2013. The main finding is that the closing price of stock market is the Granger causality of the searching volume and trading volume of short skirts. The rising of closing price in stock market can predict the more searching volume and purchase of short skirts one day later which verifies the hemline index theory on daily basis. Further confirmation based on different data resources and fashion measures is needed.