Risk assessment for poorly formalized technological process

D. Pechenkin, I. Shcherbatov, O. Protalinskiy
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Abstract

Management of technological process in real time is associated with the emergence of risks related not only with the technical component work of a hazardous production facility, but also inaccurate or untimely assessments pre-emergency or emergency situations on the part of staff. In this article, the proposed methodology is focused on the process of obtaining elemental sulfur by Claus method used at Astrakhan gas condensate complex. We substantiate the expediency of fuzzy logic application for risk assessment of technological processes and control these risks. Application of fuzzy models allows taking into account co-quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the managed objects and represent fuzzy description using fuzzy sets and linguistic variables. We selected risk factors for poorly formalized process, and determined the generalized indicator of quality. The model includes assessment of the operator's actions accuracy and the level value of the process damage. The article shows a calculated example of the model functioning for some dangerous production object condition. It justifies the use of the proposed method as a tool to predict the risks and means of the emergencies prevention in the sulfur production.
对形式化不佳的技术过程进行风险评估
技术过程的实时管理不仅与危险生产设施的技术组成部分工作有关,而且与工作人员对紧急情况或紧急情况的不准确或不及时的评估有关。在本文中,所提出的方法集中在阿斯特拉罕凝析气藏采用克劳斯法获得单质硫的过程。论证了模糊逻辑应用于工艺过程风险评价和风险控制的方便性。模糊模型的应用允许考虑到被管理对象的共定量和定性特征,并使用模糊集和语言变量表示模糊描述。我们选择了形式化不良的过程的风险因素,并确定了质量的广义指标。该模型包括对操作人员动作精度的评估和过程损伤的等级值。文中给出了该模型在某些危险生产对象条件下的计算实例。结果表明,该方法可作为预测产硫风险的工具和应急防范手段。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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