ABM-Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation Considering Dynamic Dependency in Infrastructures

Abstract

Nuclear or radiological accidents can cause significant consequences to people and the environment and may lead to a massive evacuation. Emergency preparedness and response plans are inevitable to mitigate and minimize the consequences. Generally, evacuation planning is based on various assumptions to simplify situations, and the effect of infrastructure systems is not considered explicitly. T he infrastructures’ availabilities are highly uncertain and difficult to be quantified due to their dynamic dependency, on each other. In this study, we propose a method to optimize the scenarios of emergency response and evacuation using an agent-based model. Within the simulation platform, the dynamic dependency in infrastructures is modelled by constructing loading-dependent state transition probability. Moreover, we demonstrate how to find major elements in evacuation using importance measures.