On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence

Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, Suleiman Abu-Bader
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引用次数: 57

Abstract

This paper examines the suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). To do so, we identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Additionally, we test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. We find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, we do not find synchronous long-run and short-run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, our findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.
海湾合作委员会货币联盟的最优性:结构VAR、共同趋势和共同周期证据
本文考察了海湾合作委员会(GCC)成员国之间拟议的货币联盟的适用性。为此,我们确定了这些经济体面临的潜在结构性冲击,并评估了这些冲击的对称程度。此外,我们还测试了海湾合作委员会经济体之间的共同趋势和共同商业周期。我们发现,虽然短期需求冲击通常是对称的,但永久供给冲击是不对称的。此外,我们没有发现产出的长期和短期同步运动。尽管在一体化方面取得了进展,但我们的研究结果表明,形成海湾合作委员会货币联盟的条件尚未满足。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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