Is That Possible? (Or is it Probable?)

Abstract

In settings where we have significant amounts of data, the probability of events occurring can be calculated. But life is not like that. Human beings must cope with situations where we encounter only a small number of events, handle ambiguous and imprecise information, and respond correctly. Also, arguably, possibility values are more relevant to human beings in the understanding of risk and danger than probability values of unlikely events. In this work I describe some work in transforming low occurrence counts into estimation of imprecise probability.