Analysis of Housing Turnover Frequency and the Factors Affecting Residential Mobility: A Case of Çankaya District of Ankara Province, Turkey

Abstract

In the analysis of real estate markets, criteria such as sales volume, transaction frequency and vacancy rate in a certain period of time are frequently used, and mobility analysis and development trends are used. In other saying, to analyse real estate market dynamism concept like as the real estate stock, sales amount, vacancy rate or whether the same property has been handed over more than once within a certain time period are used. Although the levels and movements of real estate market prices have been subject to many researches, there are few studies on the propensity of real estate turnover (Fisher et al., 2004). Real estate sales or turnover frequency provide important information about the condition of local, regional or national markets. In researches on the real estate turnover frequency, the current housing sales and the demand for new housing are considered in the first lace (Jaffee and Rosen 1979, Thom 1985, Stein 1995, Dieleman 2001, Rady and Ortalo-Magne 2001). According to Fisher et al. (2004), frequency of real estate turnover depends on market conditions (such as economic, demographic, financial, taxation instruments and legal regulations), characteristics of properties and the socio-economic status of the occupant. In order to understand the frequency and causes of housing turnover, the expectations of households and firms and their development strategies should be understood in advance. While the change of residence for household expectations is generally perceived as a response to the change in household demand, housing turnover is considered to be associated with the choice of residence to adapt to the change in household size, household income or living standards (Turner 1968). Along with this, Rietveld (1984) emphasised that there is a mutual relationship between housing vacancy and housing turnover frequency in the housing market. Therefore, the vacancy rate in housing stock affects the propensity household to move and at the same time the propensity of changing housing is affected by the vacancy rate. In this study, the macroeconomic variables and the development of housing sales in Turkey were evaluated in general and a macro-analysis of housing sales frequency was conducted. In the second stage, housing turnover frequency and the factors affecting it have been analysed in a selected district in the light of official data and survey results. The housing purchase and sales data of the last 20 years in the Cankaya district, where the number of dwellings and households is highest in Ankara and where households from all socioeconomic groups live, and the period of possession of the dwelling have been examined. The high frequency of housing turnover and the short period of possession within the district boundaries and the development trends in the neighbourhood scale were examined according to the results of the field observations. A survey was conducted on people who bought and sold houses in the district in the last year to collect micro data that could have influenced the reasons for housing sales and purchases and handover frequency and these were analysed. According to the results of the micro-analysis, it was determined that the factors affecting the housing turnover frequency were urban development trends, comfort perception, proximity to school or workplace, household requirements and other factors. The research results provide important clues to the decision-making bodies in terms of perceiving the dynamics of the housing market.