Effect Size and Effect Uncertainty in Organizational Research Methods

Abstract

To understand and communicate research findings, it is important for researchers to consider two types of information provided by research results: the magnitude of the effect and the degree of uncertainty in the outcome. Statistical significance tests have long served as the mainstream method for statistical inferences. However, the widespread misinterpretation and misuse of significance tests has led critics to question their usefulness in evaluating research findings and to raise concerns about the far-reaching effects of this practice on scientific progress. An alternative approach involves reporting and interpreting measures of effect size along with confidence intervals. An effect size is an indicator of magnitude and direction of a statistical observation. Effect size statistics have been developed to represent a wide range of research questions, including indicators of the mean difference between groups, the relative odds of an event, or the degree of correlation among variables. Effect sizes play a key role in evaluating practical significance, conducting power analysis, and conducting meta-analysis. While effect sizes summarize the magnitude of an effect, the confidence intervals represent the degree of uncertainty in the result. By presenting a range of plausible alternate values that might have occurred due to sampling error, confidence intervals provide an intuitive indicator of how strongly researchers should rely on the results from a single study.