ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF CENTRAL BANK REFINANCING RATE IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

We know that regulation of inflation, creating a favorable environment for market economy and ensuring economic growth is an important issue in every country. To achieve these goals, the monetary policy of the Central Bank, the influence of the refinancing rate is very large. How much do factors affect the central bank's main rate? To answer these pressing questions, we conducted a scientific research. Analytical data for the research were used from the official website of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the official data of the State Statistics Committee. In the study, quarterly indicators were observed for the years 2016-2022, and the number of observations was 26. In the study, regression, Cook's Distance test and Forward stepwise econometric methods were used using IBM SPSS Statistics 25 program. In the analysis, factors affecting the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan were selected as the factors of the country's inflation rate, the percentage of deposits in commercial banks, the percentage of preferential loans, the average percentage of total loans, the percentage of consumer loans, and a regression model was created. The level of reliability of the model was checked by the Forward stepwise method and the result was 89.4%. As a result of the study, it was determined that only 3 of the 5 selected factors have an effect on the refinancing rate of the Central Bank and how much of an effect it has. The same 3 factors were included in the model: inflation rate, percentage of deposits in commercial banks, percentage of preferential loans. The number of migrants from Russia has been increasing sharply in Uzbekistan in recent months because of the Ukrain War. It is necessary to determine the degree of influence of these migration factors on the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan.