{"title":"A Backward Scenario Planning Overview of the Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran by the End of the Sixth Progress Plan","authors":"N. Norouzi, M. Dehghani","doi":"10.2174/2212717806999200709124810","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n\nTaking Iran as the 7th Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission source of the world, the\ncountry contains a high potential for the emission management plans and studies. As the\neconomy is a significant factor in the greenhouse gas emission, studying the economy and\nGHG emission integrated relations must be taken into account of every climate change and\nenvironmental management plan. This paper investigates the relationships among the economic,\ndemographic, foreign policies, and many other domestic and foreign parameters,\nwhich are illustrated by sixth Iranian document over development and GHG emission in\nthree progress scenarios made for this plan. In this paper, all the significant GHG emissions\nsuch as CO2, SO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and CO in the period of 2014-2020 are being studied.\nAs the results show, the number of emissions is directly related to domestic and foreign\nparameters, which means a better economic status in Iran causes an increase in the number\nof emissions. The foreign policies are more effective in the Iranian economy and emissions\nthan the domestic policies and parameters. The scenarios and the results show that the Iranian\neconomy and energy systems have a significant potential for efficiency development\nplans. However, one thing is clear that Iranian emissions will be increased to 800 million\ntons by the end of the plan period (by 2021). This significant increase in the amount indicates\nthe importance of optimization and efficiency development plans in Iran, which is\npredicted to control and fix this increment around 3-4%.\n","PeriodicalId":214414,"journal":{"name":"Current Environmental Management","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Current Environmental Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2174/2212717806999200709124810","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Taking Iran as the 7th Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission source of the world, the
country contains a high potential for the emission management plans and studies. As the
economy is a significant factor in the greenhouse gas emission, studying the economy and
GHG emission integrated relations must be taken into account of every climate change and
environmental management plan. This paper investigates the relationships among the economic,
demographic, foreign policies, and many other domestic and foreign parameters,
which are illustrated by sixth Iranian document over development and GHG emission in
three progress scenarios made for this plan. In this paper, all the significant GHG emissions
such as CO2, SO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and CO in the period of 2014-2020 are being studied.
As the results show, the number of emissions is directly related to domestic and foreign
parameters, which means a better economic status in Iran causes an increase in the number
of emissions. The foreign policies are more effective in the Iranian economy and emissions
than the domestic policies and parameters. The scenarios and the results show that the Iranian
economy and energy systems have a significant potential for efficiency development
plans. However, one thing is clear that Iranian emissions will be increased to 800 million
tons by the end of the plan period (by 2021). This significant increase in the amount indicates
the importance of optimization and efficiency development plans in Iran, which is
predicted to control and fix this increment around 3-4%.