A Backward Scenario Planning Overview of the Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran by the End of the Sixth Progress Plan

N. Norouzi, M. Dehghani
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Abstract

Taking Iran as the 7th Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission source of the world, the country contains a high potential for the emission management plans and studies. As the economy is a significant factor in the greenhouse gas emission, studying the economy and GHG emission integrated relations must be taken into account of every climate change and environmental management plan. This paper investigates the relationships among the economic, demographic, foreign policies, and many other domestic and foreign parameters, which are illustrated by sixth Iranian document over development and GHG emission in three progress scenarios made for this plan. In this paper, all the significant GHG emissions such as CO2, SO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and CO in the period of 2014-2020 are being studied. As the results show, the number of emissions is directly related to domestic and foreign parameters, which means a better economic status in Iran causes an increase in the number of emissions. The foreign policies are more effective in the Iranian economy and emissions than the domestic policies and parameters. The scenarios and the results show that the Iranian economy and energy systems have a significant potential for efficiency development plans. However, one thing is clear that Iranian emissions will be increased to 800 million tons by the end of the plan period (by 2021). This significant increase in the amount indicates the importance of optimization and efficiency development plans in Iran, which is predicted to control and fix this increment around 3-4%.
第六进展计划结束时伊朗温室气体排放的逆向情景规划概述
伊朗是世界第七大温室气体排放源,其排放管理计划和研究潜力巨大。由于经济是温室气体排放的重要因素,研究经济与温室气体排放的综合关系必须考虑到每一个气候变化和环境管理计划。本文研究了经济、人口、外交政策和许多其他国内外参数之间的关系,这些关系在伊朗第六份关于发展和温室气体排放的文件中得到了说明,该文件为该计划制定了三种进展情景。本文研究了2014-2020年期间所有重要的温室气体排放,如CO2、SO2、NOx、碳氢化合物和CO。结果表明,排放数量与国内外参数直接相关,这意味着伊朗经济状况较好导致排放数量增加。在伊朗经济和排放方面,外交政策比国内政策和参数更有效。这些情景和结果表明,伊朗的经济和能源系统在效率发展计划方面具有巨大的潜力。然而,有一点是明确的,到计划期结束时(到2021年),伊朗的排放量将增加到8亿吨。这一数量的显著增加表明了优化和效率开发计划在伊朗的重要性,预计将控制并将这一增量固定在3-4%左右。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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