Dynamics in Land Use and Driving Factors on Change in Arable Land in Tanzania

Abstract

Tanzania has a population of 44,928,923 people, as according to 2012 national census and projected to be 52,554,628 people in 2017 by Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and is estimated to have total surface area 945,087 km2. Continental area is 88.2 million hectares, of which Some 70% of the land is considered to be village land supporting more than 80% of the population (farmers and pastoralists) with the approximately 39% of all land being used for agricultural activities, 28% as a reserved land and 2% general (mainly urban) land which is supporting 20% of the population. The gross area cultivated or planted annually is about 5.1 million hectares which are only about 5% of the surface area of Tanzania. The other arable land, but not cultivated, is 10 million ha much of it is used as pasture and meadow. While in the reserve areas there is an additional of 4 million hectares suitable for cultivation.Most of the researches keep on focusing on land use change in general, but little has been exemplified on the arable land in cause and effect relationship. This research carries out on the base of quantitative analysis and more attention on the quantitative study on the cause and effect relationship and hence creating the agricultural or arable land use model within the period of 1987 to 2017. The paper entails to discuss and analyse the land resources characteristics of the change of arable land in Tanzania according to the arable land area and relevant factors affecting the land resources mainly here referred to arable land. Linear regression analysis with Cochrane-Orcutt and Prais-Winsten estimation methods by using SPSS 22.0 software method was adopted to carry out quantitative analysis on the driving factors of arable land and its change in Tanzania. This paper also establishes the multiple regression model of driving factors on arable land area. Finally, some corresponding suggestions and discussions were put forward. The research results give valuable information for decision-makers to design sustainable arable land resources management strategies and national land allocation policies among the land-based sector within the case of Tanzania as well as other African nations.