Distinguishing upside potential from downside risk

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop new tools to interpret changes in risk neutral probability distributions (RNPDs). It distinguishes between changes attributable to upside potential and those attributable to downside risk, and shows that the distinction is supported empirically.Design/methodology/approach – This paper estimates pricing kernels and RNPDs from option price data, then studies the expected excess returns on a fixed‐strategy reference portfolio composed of the claims defined by the RNPDs. The portfolio is disaggregated so that realized returns can be expressed as a value‐weighted average of returns to upside (investment) and downside (insurance) sub‐portfolios, respectively. An upside sub‐portfolio can be interpreted as defining payoffs to a call option, a downside sub‐portfolio as payoffs to a short put position.Findings – Empirical results indicate that the realized excess returns on the reference portfolios are significantly and negatively related to both S&P index growth an...