The role of property finance in the performance of residential property markets: Evidence from UK House prices: 1967 to 2017

Abstract

Housing issues have become increasingly important throughout the developed world and have attracted much interest amongst economists, policymakers and the general public, following the catastrophic impacts of the 2007/08 global financial crisis. Globally, housing finance has undergone substantial changes, in terms of structure, composition and regulation, and witnessed considerable expansion within the last three decades. While studies abound seeming to explain national and regional house price movements, the dynamics of the housing market are still not widely understood. Though the importance of finance in the housing industry is generally well appreciated, very little attention has been paid to the drivers of housing finance and their impact on house prices. The determinants of mortgage credit growth and how these interact with macroeconomic, fiscal and regulatory policy variables to shape house prices are still not well understood. This study seeks to make an invaluable contribution to this understanding. by analysing house price dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2017 and examining the role of mortgage credit in the performance of the housing market. The key drivers underlying housing finance expansion over the last 50 years are also investigated, paying particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic, fiscal and regulatory policy variables.