Evaluation of Ocean Forecasting in the East China Sea

Abstract

The accuracy of the initial condition of a global ocean forecasting system and its prediction skill was evaluated against in situ temperature, salinity and satellite salinity observations during the winter of 2015 and the summer of 2016 for the East China Sea. The ocean forecasting system demonstrates better skill for the Yangtze River estuary and the East China Sea during winter time than during summer time. During winter time, the rootmean-square error (RMSE) of the initial fields of the system for salinity is 1.90 psu, and the correlation is 0.56. The model has a salty bias of 0.29 psu. The salinity RMSE reduces with increasing distance from the coast. In contrast, the RMSE for temperature is 0.76°C, and the correlation is as high as 0.95. There is no bias between model temperature and observation. During summer time, the accuracy and forecast skill of the global ocean forecasting system are very poor. The RMSE for salinity is 3.14 psu, and the correlation is 0.28. The model has a salty bias of 0.95 psu. The RMSE for temperature is 7.22°C, and the model has a warm bias as high as 5.52°C.