O. Mizuno, Takuya Adachi, T. Kikuno, Yasunari Takagi
{"title":"On prediction of cost and duration for risky software projects based on risk questionnaire","authors":"O. Mizuno, Takuya Adachi, T. Kikuno, Yasunari Takagi","doi":"10.1109/APAQS.2001.990010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper proposes a new approach that can discriminate risky software development projects from smoothly or satisfactorily going projects and give an explanation for the risk. We have already developed a logistic regression model which predicts whether a project becomes risky or not (O. Mizuno et al., 2000). However, the model returned the decision with a calculated probability only. Additionally, a formula was constructed based on the risk questionnaire which includes 23 questions. We therefore try to improve the previous method with respect to accountability and feasibility. In the new approach, we firstly construct a new risk questionnaire including only 9 questions (or risk factors), each of which is concerned with project management. We then apply multiple regression analysis to the actual project data, and clarify a set of factors which contributes essentially to estimate the relative cost error and the relative duration error, respectively. We then apply the constructed formulas to another set of project data. The analysis results show that both the cost and duration of risky projects are estimated fairly well by the formulas. We can thus confirm that our new approach is applicable to software development projects in order to discriminate risky projects from appropriate projects and give reasonable explanations for the risk.","PeriodicalId":145151,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Quality Software","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2001-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Quality Software","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/APAQS.2001.990010","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Abstract
The paper proposes a new approach that can discriminate risky software development projects from smoothly or satisfactorily going projects and give an explanation for the risk. We have already developed a logistic regression model which predicts whether a project becomes risky or not (O. Mizuno et al., 2000). However, the model returned the decision with a calculated probability only. Additionally, a formula was constructed based on the risk questionnaire which includes 23 questions. We therefore try to improve the previous method with respect to accountability and feasibility. In the new approach, we firstly construct a new risk questionnaire including only 9 questions (or risk factors), each of which is concerned with project management. We then apply multiple regression analysis to the actual project data, and clarify a set of factors which contributes essentially to estimate the relative cost error and the relative duration error, respectively. We then apply the constructed formulas to another set of project data. The analysis results show that both the cost and duration of risky projects are estimated fairly well by the formulas. We can thus confirm that our new approach is applicable to software development projects in order to discriminate risky projects from appropriate projects and give reasonable explanations for the risk.
本文提出了一种新的方法来区分有风险的软件开发项目和进行顺利或令人满意的项目,并给出了风险的解释。我们已经开发了一个逻辑回归模型来预测一个项目是否有风险(O. Mizuno et al., 2000)。然而,该模型仅以计算的概率返回决策。此外,根据风险问卷,构建了一个包含23个问题的公式。因此,我们试图在问责制和可行性方面改进以前的方法。在新的方法中,我们首先构建了一个新的风险问卷,其中只有9个问题(或风险因素),每个问题都与项目管理有关。然后,我们将多元回归分析应用于实际项目数据,并澄清了一组因素,这些因素分别有助于估计相对成本误差和相对持续时间误差。然后,我们将构造的公式应用于另一组项目数据。分析结果表明,该公式能较好地估计风险项目的成本和工期。因此,我们可以确认我们的新方法适用于软件开发项目,以便区分有风险的项目和适当的项目,并对风险给出合理的解释。