The Impact of Climate Change on the Long-Term Response of Offshore Structures: A Study Case

Abstract

This paper discusses the influence of the climate change in the long-term response of offshore structures. The case studied is a linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system under environmental load wave characterized by the JONSWAP spectrum. The wave parameter data used in the analyses were obtained from running the wind wave WaveWatch III with wind field input data derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs): HadGEM2-ES and MRI-CGCM3 considering historical and future greenhouse emissions scenarios. The study was carried out for two locations: one in the North Atlantic and the other in Brazilian South East Coast. Environmental contours have been used to estimate the extreme long-term response. The results suggest that climate change would affect the structure response and its impact is highly depend on the structure location, the global climate model and the greenhouse emissions scenario selected.