Short-term traffic prediction based on historical trend method

Abstract

With the rapid development of China’s economy, people’s lives are getting richer and richer, and more people have higher requirements for transportation comfort and convenience, resulting in a substantial increase in the number of vehicles in our country, rapid growth in road traffic demand, and road traffic conditions have also become a focus of increasing concern. The rapid increase of traffic accidents and traffic congestion has seriously affected the operational efficiency of road traffic. According to the development needs of intelligent transportation, to improve the safety and operating efficiency of road traffic, it is particularly important to monitor and predict road traffic. Based on the traffic information data collected on the two-way four-lane section of the Langfang section of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu expressway, the traffic condition was predicted using the historical trend method. This paper established a mathematical model of the historical trend method using MATLAB, solved the smoothing parameters, and plotted the short traffic forecast chart.