Model Variasi Kalender pada Regresi Runtun Waktu untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Grojogan Sewu

E. Zukhronah, Winita Sulandari, I. Slamet, S. Sugiyanto, Irwan Susanto
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Abstract

Abstract. Grojogan Sewu visitors experience a significant increase during school holidays, year-end holidays, and also Eid al-Fitr holidays. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr uses the Hijriyah calendar so that the occurrence of Eid al-Fitr will progress 10 days when viewed from the Gregorian calendar, this causes calendar variations. The objective of this paper is to apply a calendar variation model based on time series regression and SARIMA models for forecasting the number of visitors in Grojogan Sewu. The data are Grojogan Sewu visitors from January 2009 until December 2019. The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the SARIMA model. It can be seen from the value of  root mean square error (RMSE) out-sample of time series regression with calendar variation is less than of SARIMA model.Keywords: Calendar variation, time series regression, SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu
时间损失率的日历变化模型
摘要Grojogan Sewu的游客在学校假期、年终假期和开斋节假期期间显著增加。开斋节的确定使用希吉里耶历,因此开斋节的发生从公历来看将提前10天,这导致了日历的变化。本文的目的是应用基于时间序列回归和SARIMA模型的日历变化模型来预测Grojogan Sewu的游客数量。这些数据是2009年1月至2019年12月期间格罗约根塞乌岛的游客。结果表明,与SARIMA模型相比,带日历变化的时间序列回归具有更好的预测效果。从时间序列回归的外样本均方根误差(RMSE)值可以看出,有日历变化的时间序列回归的外样本均方根误差(RMSE)值小于SARIMA模型。关键词:日历变异,时间序列回归,SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu
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