State stability: a governance analysis framework for Arab spring countries

Abstract

The 2011-2012 Arab Spring uprising can be considered a new political phenomenon with respect to collective action and the origin of network governance in North Africa and the Middle East. Nevertheless, current formal and empirical models are incapable of analyzing and predicting the future of the uprisings. Therefore, the conceptualization of these models must be reviewed given the increasing need for a political analytical model that can assess the state of the state and consider the influence of non-state actors on service provision and security mechanisms inside their society. The circumstances require a simple conceptual model to describe state status (stable or unstable) in a simple representational form for countries such as Egypt following the Arab Spring. This study propose a framework to explain the influence of network governance on state stability, it was preferable that this model be general and conceptual. Thus, this framework can offer a more realistic explanation of the political transformations that occurred in the Arab Spring countries, such as Egypt. The analysis showed that formal mathematical models could not persuasively explain the Arab Spring phenomenon because such models are based on theories and ideas that are inapplicable to the changes in the political environment that occurred in these countries. The proposed framework, attempts to describe state status, whereby a state is stable or unstable and it is not necessary for the state to be a failed state. This framework aims to help political analysts develop recommendations for policy- and decision-makers on how to avoid state instability.